Accuweather: Hurricane Irma tracking toward US; Residents of East and Gulf coasts urged to prepare now

By Jordan Root and Renee Duff, Meteorologists for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 4, 2017 – As major Hurricane Irma churns across the northern Caribbean and towards the United States, residents along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. need to be on alert, AccuWeather reports

Irma will blast the northern Caribbean with flooding rain, damaging winds and rough surf this week, bringing life-threatening conditions to the islands.

A similar scenario could play out somewhere along the Gulf or East coasts this weekend or next week, depending on where Irma tracks. Residents are urged to prepare now.

“This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey,” Evan Myers, expert senior meteorologist and chief operating officer, said.

A landfall in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the Gulf of Mexico.

Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

The exact path of Irma beyond the end of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of moving parts in the atmosphere.

“A large area of high pressure across the central North Atlantic is helping to steer Irma,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

This feature will be the main driving force of Irma over the next few days. As the weekend approaches, other factors will come into play.

“The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma,” Kottlowski said.

How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will be an important factor on where Irma is steered this weekend into next week. The speed of this feature will determine when and how much Irma gets pulled northward or whether Irma continues on more of a westward track.

This amount of uncertainty means that the entire southern and eastern U.S. should monitor Irma this week. Residents along the coast are urged to start preparing and making sure plans are in place to deal with the worst case scenario. This includes plans on how to evacuate and what is important to bring with you and your family.

“As we saw just 10 days ago with Harvey, it is important to be ready to evacuate,” Myers said. Be prepared with a list of items you would need to take if you had 30 minutes’ notice or one hour’s notice or six hours or a day to evacuate.

Due to Irma following so closely on Harvey’s heels and since FEMA and other government resources will be strained, more preparation and storm aftermath may rest on individuals, Myers said. It may be crucial to evacuate ahead of the storm, so preparation is key.

If Irma were to make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm somewhere in the U.S., it would be in historical territory.

“The U.S. has not sustained a direct hit from two Category 4 or above hurricanes in more than 100 years,” Myers said.

Keep checking back to AccuWeather.com for updates on the status of Irma and where it may track in the days ahead.

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AccuWeather: MinuteCast Survey Shows How Weather Affects Behavior; Launches Sweepstakes

AccuWeather’s offers probabilities of a White Christmas. Get minute-by-minute weather through its mobile app, MinuteCast.

AccuWeather, a leader in weather information and digital media, announced the results of a national survey that details how winter weather conditions affect consumer behavior by the minute, from road travel to holiday preparations.  The AccuWeather MinuteCast® study polled 1,000 respondents across the U.S., revealing findings with some stark regional differences.

MinuteCast enables drivers to check snow and rain conditions at their exact locations as well as their destinations, minute-by-minute allowing them to plan the best times for road travel and holiday shopping and make the most of every minute during the busy holiday season.

Winter weather means more car time for Americans. The survey found that when winter weather hits, 87 percent of respondents give themselves up to 30 extra minutes when heading out on the road.  Regionally, Midwesterners give themselves the most time to account for winter conditions during their daily drive, with 52 percent allotting an extra 16-30 minutes.

As minutes count down to holiday celebrations, weather also has a direct impact on retail shopping.  The survey found that 58 percent of adults would not head out for holiday shopping in the event of a forecast of at least 4 inches of snow.  Southerners are more likely to delay shopping in inclement winter conditions, with 35 percent stating that just 1-3 inches of snow would hold them back from retail brick-and-mortar stores.  In contrast, in the Northeast, 33 percent of respondents stated that it would take a more significant snowfall amount of 7-9 inches to keep them from braving the elements.. The survey also found that the majority of respondents did not have to brave bad winter weather to complete their last-minute holiday list last year.

To see how winter weather will impact last-minute shopping this season, go to AccuWeather.com or use the AccuWeather mobile app available on most popular digital devices for weather forecasts with Superior Accuracy™, featuring AccuWeather MinuteCast – the unique, patent-based, minute-by-minute precipitation forecast for users’ exact street addresses or GPS locations.  It gives users by-the-minute precipitation forecasts for the next two hours, including precipitation type and intensity, start times, and end times for their exact locations. AccuWeather MinuteCast is uniquely supported by both national and international patented technology.

AccuWeather MinuteCast Moments Sweepstakes

AccuWeather is also inviting people to share how they are using MinuteCast to make every minute count through the AccuWeather MinuteCast Moments Sweepstakes.  To share a MinuteCast Moments picture and caption and enter for a chance to win, visit AccuWeather’s Facebook page at www.Facebook.com/AccuWeather .  Participants can also enter via Twitter or Instagram and must include the hashtag #MinuteCast with their entries.  The sweepstakes began at 12:00 am ET on November 17, 2014 and ends at 11:59 pm ET on January 11, 2015 at 11:59 pm ET. Open to legal residents of the 50 United States, Washington D.C., and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are 18 years of age or older. Limit one entry per person per week. No purchase necessary. Winners will be selected at random after the sweepstakes ends. For complete sweepstakes rules, visit www.Facebook.com/AccuWeather.

 

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AccuWeather Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize Northeast; Wintry Blasts to Slick South

AccuWeather’s winter prediction: cold, snow to seize the Northeast; wintry blasts to slick South (map from AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is forecasting that  though parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic had a gradual introduction to fall, winter will arrive without delay. Cold air and high snow amounts will define the season – good for ski resorts but not so good for urban areas and Mid-Atlantic places where even the slightest amount of snow or ice wreaks havoc.

Farther south, ice storms and snow events will threaten the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Much of the South can prepare for a wet winter, with some severe weather encroaching on Florida.

The northern Plains will be somewhat inconsistent with variable, back-and-forth temperatures and below-normal snowfall. Meanwhile, the drought will persist in the Northwest and northern California and ease slightly farther south.

Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season

After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season.

Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.

“I think, primarily, we’ll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it’s not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent,” AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

“The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven’t seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings.”

In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor.

“Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that’s where you’re going to see your bigger, heavier amounts,” Pastelok said.

Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit.

The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.

Rain, Snow, Ice All Threats for Southeast, Gulf States, Tennessee Valley

“I’m very concerned about the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as far as extremes go this year,” Pastelok said.

Areas from eastern Texas all the way up to eastern Kentucky could be under the gun for ice events this season. The region will likely see this in January, but the I-10 corridor should be on guard for a sneaky late-January or early-February storm.

Overall, the region will have a very wet winter, but the timing of these storms will determine whether a flood risk exists.

“These are big storms that are going to form and put down a lot of rain, but there may be breaks in between,” Pastelok said.

“The Gulf hasn’t been disturbed from tropical activity, so the warmer waters may hang on into the middle part of the winter and give us that extra boost into some of these systems coming up the East Coast.”

The weather pattern, a weak El Nino, paired with the southern storm track and rich moisture source will set up Florida for a significant severe weather potential in mid- to late winter. Tornadoes will be possible from mid-January to February.

Dry, Less Harsh Winter in Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northern and Central Plains

In a story similar to the Northeast, the winter season has several cold months planned for the Midwest, though not quite as extreme as last year.

Temperature wise, areas such as Duluth, Minnesota, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, may be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year’s three-month average.

Below-normal snowfall totals are also forecast.

Chicago could fail to reach 30 inches this year, and Minneapolis has an even greater chance of falling below normal.

Farther west, the northern and central Plains will endure roller-coaster temperatures. Fewer clipper systems than normal will reach down into the area, preventing high overall snow totals.

El Nino May Lead to High Moisture in Southern Plains, Interior Southwest

A weak El Nino pattern, which is expected to unfold, may lead to high moisture in the Southwest.

“That moisture source is needed to get above-normal snowfall for the region. I do believe there are going to be periods where moisture gets in there,” Pastelok said.

If it does, the Four Corners region, including Albuquerque, could get near- to slightly above-normal snowfall totals this year.

“Northwestern Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, they can also see near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this year,” Pastelok said.

Winter Precipitation Won’t Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought

As California suffers through its fourth and most extreme year of drought, the state is in dire need of precipitation this winter.

“California, the northern Sierra and Sierra Nevada are going to be below normal, although I do think that they are going to get enough snow to hold back the drought just a little bit from getting any worse than it is,” Pastelok said.

December will bring some rain to northern California, but the precipitation will ease off in the following months, making the region drier than normal by February. After a season of intense wildfires, the precipitation that reaches the Northwest will not be enough to prevent problems next year.

However, the winter isn’t all bad news for the drought-stricken region, Pastelok said.

The weather pattern will allow some Eastern Pacific moisture to be pulled in, causing some big events which will increase the snowfall rates in the mountains.

Additionally, Southern California looks to fare better than its northern counterpart with slightly above-normal precipitation this season, especially in areas farther from the coast.

 

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Winter Storms Likely to Delay Christmas Travel for More than Half the US, Accuweather Forecasts

AccuWeather.com is forecasting that winter storms are likely to delay Christmas travel for more than half the US.

Multiple storms will produce areas of rain, ice and snow with areas of dense fog which can cause trouble for travelers over the Central, Eastern and Northwestern states over the next several days, according to Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist  for AccuWeather.com.

The largest storm of the bunch will hit this weekend and will affect nearly 30 states and over 100 million people.

The atmosphere will quickly change gears the next few days to a pattern that will briefly send warmer air into the eastern third of the nation. Temperatures may challenge with record highs.

The warmth will mean no snow or ice problems for millions of people in the South, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England. However, that warmth will also be accompanied by episodes of rain and fog that can still lead to travel delays.

According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, “Conditions will be favorable for extensive fog to form with the warmup, even in the absence of heavy rain.”

The fog could settle over long stretches of highways and delay flights for hours at some major airports.

On Friday, one storm will spread some rain and drizzle from the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians and southern New England. Because of a cold ground, fog may form with or without snow cover and affect the cities of the cities of Pittsburgh, New York and Boston.

Farther north, from that same Friday storm, some snow and a wintry mix will reach eastward across from parts of Michigan to upstate New York and northern New England. While snowfall with this system will be considered to be minor, enough can fall to cause slippery roads.

Showers and patchy fog will also reach from the central Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians with that system Friday and Saturday.

A storm will affect the Northwest Friday into Saturday. Enough cold air will be present with the storm to bring some snow to near sea level in western Washington, including around Seattle, Friday morning. Snow will fall over the passes in the Cascades Friday before a change to rain. Periods of snow and slippery travel is likely Friday and Saturday over portions of the northern Rockies.

Yet another storm is forecast to take shape over the South Central states Saturday and quickly expand northward and eastward Sunday. The storm will become the major weather maker prior to Christmas over the eastern half of the nation. Major travel disruptions are likely from this storm.

The weekend storm will bring rain and not snow to areas from much of Texas to northern Florida to coastal Maine, thanks to a surge of warmer air.

The rain can become heavy enough to cause urban flooding. Cities that have a chance of heavy rain include Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Boston. With the rain will come with the potential for episodes of dense fog and low ceilings, which could add to flight delays and cause cancellations.

A zone of ice and snow is expected to develop on the northwestern fringe of the rain area. Metro areas that could be hit with travel delays include Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Mo., Chicago and Detroit.

The storm will also have major impact on neighboring Canada. There is the risk of heavy ice affecting a large part of southern Ontario, including the greater Toronto area. A heavy wintry mix is possible for Ottawa and Montreal.

There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms in part of the South from the second storm.

AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity said, “We could be looking at a severe weather outbreak including a few tornadoes beginning from central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley with this second storm Saturday into Sunday.”

In the wake of the second storm with its rain, fog, ice and snow will follow a push of chilly air that will last into Christmas Day. While this is not likely to be as cold as some prior Arctic outbreaks thus far, it may get cold enough to cause wet areas to freeze.

The weekend storm will bring rain and not snow to areas from much of Texas to northern Florida to coastal Maine, thanks to a surge of warmer air.

The rain can become heavy enough to cause urban flooding. Cities that have a chance of heavy rain include Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Boston. With the rain will come with the potential for episodes of dense fog and low ceilings, which could add to flight delays and cause cancellations.

A zone of ice and snow is expected to develop on the northwestern fringe of the rain area. Metro areas that could be hit with travel delays include Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Mo., Chicago and Detroit.

The storm will also have major impact on neighboring Canada. There is the risk of heavy ice affecting a large part of southern Ontario, including the greater Toronto area. A heavy wintry mix is possible for Ottawa and Montreal.

There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms in part of the South from the second storm.

AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity  said, “We could be looking at a severe weather outbreak including a few tornadoes beginning from central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley with this second storm Saturday into Sunday.”

In the wake of the second storm with its rain, fog, ice and snow will follow a push of chilly air that will last into Christmas Day. While this is not likely to be as cold as some prior Arctic outbreaks thus far, it may get cold enough to cause wet areas to freeze.

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AccuWeather Launches Minute-by-Minute Forecast of Precipitation

Finding out the weather in places you are traveling to is easier and more reliable now, so you can better plan what to pack and what to do during your visit.

AccuWeather, a leading global digital media company, has acquired Sky Motion Research, Inc., of Montreal, Canada, an innovative developer of ultra-short-term and highly localized weather forecasts. With this acquisition, AccuWeather will now offer highly accurate, minute-by-minute weather predictions, including precipitation start and end times, at a hyper-local level. The new MinuteCast, Minute-by-Minute Forecast solution will be made available on all of AccuWeather’s mobile applications including iOS, Android, and Windows, as well as its website properties including accuweather.com and m.accuweather.com.

“With AccuWeather’s introduction of the new MinuteCast, we will now offer the most accurate minute-by-minute forecast available in the market,” said Dr. Joel N Myers, AccuWeather Founder and President. “MinuteCast will provide our customers with a critical and valuable decision-making tool.”

Sky Motion pioneered the development of proprietary nowcasting technology that uses algorithms invented by Sky Motion Founder and Chief Technology Officer, André LeBlanc to track every rain cloud’s movement in real-time. The technology also tracks other weather variables such as wind and temperature and integrates ground observations to create a hyper-local forecast for approximately every half square mile, refreshing every five minutes.

“The acquisition of Sky Motion Research is another step in AccuWeather’s ongoing dedication to offering cutting-edge weather technology to meet the needs of our global audience and our global partners,” said Barry Lee Myers, AccuWeather Chief Executive Officer. “Sky Motion’s innovative technologies make them the perfect addition to the AccuWeather family.”   He added, “This new addition also builds on technology related to location based weather products patented by AccuWeather’s affiliated partner LocatorCentric. Because this technology is legally protected world-wide, no one else can do what we do.”

As part of the acquisition, Sky Motion’s facilities in Canada will be added to AccuWeather’s suite of offices, continuing its international expansion and becoming a key innovation and development center for the company. In addition, André LeBlanc will continue as an AccuWeather executive along with his software engineering resources.

“We are proud to be joining the AccuWeather family,” said LeBlanc. “The proprietary technology behind MinuteCast, combined with AccuWeather’s superior accuracy and decades of experience, means that AccuWeather will continue to provide state-of-the-art weather information that customers need to know, when they need to know it.”

“We’re excited to be joining forces with AccuWeather. Their strong brand recognition will accelerate the discovery and adoption of MinuteCast beyond our wildest dreams,” said Maxime Julien, former SkyMotion Research Chief Executive Officer.

The addition of MinuteCast to AccuWeather’s portfolio is part of its strategy to be the leading global digital media company that serves superior weather forecasts to more than one billion people worldwide. AccuWeather’s website properties provide users with numerous innovative weather forecasts including the 45-Day Forecast and lifestyle forecasts informing how weather affects travel, business planning, hobbies such as golfing and sailing, and conditions such as migraines and allergies.

AccuWeather also offers animated and interactive weather radar and satellite maps, broadcast-quality weather videos and news stories, and up-to-date hurricane and tropical storm information in its Hurricane Center.

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Barrow, Alaska Sees First Sunset Since May

The residents of Barrow, Alaska, on August 2 finally saw something they have not seen since May 10: a sunset.

Ever since 2:54 a.m. on May 11, the sun has been in the sky, keeping the town in continual light. Early Saturday at 1:58 a.m. Alaska Standard Time (AKST), the sun will fall below the horizon, making it the first official sunset on summer for the town, AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Brian Lada and Jeff Rafach report.

The reason that Barrow experiences the periods of continual light is due to their close location to the North Pole. As the Earth revolves on its axis, Barrow is turned toward the sun and remains light until the revolution of the Earth turns Barrow away from the sun.

This summer has been unusually warm across the Last Frontier. So far this summer, temperatures in Barrow and Anchorage have averaged approximately 2.7 degrees above average, while temperatures in Fairbanks have averaged nearly 4 degrees above average.

Although Anchorage has averaged above normal, the city has yet to break any daily temperature records this summer. The persistent warmth has managed to break a different type of record for the city, however.

Over the past 16 days, Anchorage has either reached or climbed above 70 degrees F. This breaks the old record of set in 2004 when the city had a stretch of 13 consecutive days of at or above 70.

In Fairbanks, the high soared to 84 degrees on Thursday. The high has reached 80 degrees F or higher for 31 days this summer. That is the most such days in Fairbanks, since record-keeping began in 1904. The average number of days Fairbanks reaches 80 degrees or warmer is 11. Currently, this summer is ranked as the second warmest for the city, falling behind the warm summer of 2004.

This warmer weather has also contributed to development of lightning-producing thunderstorms that ignited of dozens of wildfires burning across Alaska over the past few weeks. According to the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, there are currently 76 active wildfires across the state.

This trend in warmer weather was expected to end with a dip in the jet stream will bring the return of more seasonable temperatures across the state, AccuWeather forecast.

For more information, visit accuweather.com.

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