Posts Tagged ‘Forecast for Jose’

Accuweather: Jose to track close enough to bring rough surf, wind, rain to northeastern US

September 16, 2017

accuweather-jose 091617

AccuWeather Global Headquarters РSeptember 15, 2017 РAccuWeather reports  Jose will track close enough to the northeastern United States to raise seas and winds as well as to deliver rain to coastal areas next week.

People in coastal areas of the Northeast will need to monitor the progress of Jose, which will begin to track northward but remain offshore of the Southeastern states this weekend.

“It appears that Jose will miss the quick ride away from the U.S. coast and into the cold waters of the North Atlantic next week,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

Instead, Jose is now expected to pass within 200 miles of the Northeast coast.

“We cannot rule out landfall in New England during the middle of next week,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

The exact track and strength of Jose will determine the severity of the wind and surf as well as the northwestern extent of the rain.

Jose to bring significant impact, even if storm stays offshore

A hurricane does not need to make landfall to cause significant adverse effects in the northeastern U.S., since the shape of the coast tends to enhance storm effects and trap ocean water.

Rough surf and strong rip currents will be a problem along the southern Atlantic coast through the weekend.

At this point, impact in the northeastern U.S. is based on a strong tropical storm, minimal hurricane or hybrid storm that comes close to the Northeast coast but remains slightly offshore. Such a storm and track will tend to keep the most significant effects to communities along and east of Interstate 95.

At the very least, Jose will cause dangerous surf and seas, which will lead to beach erosion and minor flooding at times of high tide from eastern North Carolina to Maine.

The number and frequency of rip currents will increase along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts this weekend. Breakers powerful enough to cause serious injury may reach much of the Northeast coast by early next week.

With the new moon phase early next week, tide levels are higher than most of the rest of the month. A strong storm tracking near the coast may push tides to 1-3 feet above published levels.

Winds may get strong enough to damage trees and cause sporadic power outages. Gusts to 50 mph are possible from eastern Maryland to Maine and are likely on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Some rain will reach the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The combination of rain and wind near the coast will lead to airline delays and slow travel on area highways.

Much worse effects are likely if landfall occurs

Should Jose be stronger than a Category 1 hurricane and/or make landfall, more significant effects are likely.

A Category 1 hurricane or the equivalent thereof can cause property damage, widespread power outages, flooding rainfall and moderate coastal flooding.

Just offshore, seas could range upwards of 20 feet, should a Category 1 hurricane or greater approach the coast.

A landfall in southeastern New England could cause heavy rain and gusty wind to spread well inland across the Northeast.

What will influence Jose’s strength?

“Jose is likely to gain back some strength into this weekend as the storm encounters less disruptive winds aloft,” Pydynowski said.

Waters are sufficiently warm to maintain a hurricane through early next week.

“The storm will move over even warmer waters of the Gulf Stream by early next week, which may lead to additional strengthening,” Pydynowski said.

Jose may reach Category 2 or 3 status at some point between Sunday and Tuesday.

“As Jose moves off the coast of the upper mid-Atlantic and New England, water temperatures drop significantly, which may lead to weakening or transformation to a sub-tropical system,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

Even if Jose weakens or loses some tropical characteristics, the storm may spread out in size and the same adverse effects of wind, seas and rain can occur.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty of Jose’s track and strength. However, people may want to take some precautions, should the storm wander onshore. Preparation for the equivalent of a moderate to strong nor’easter may be warranted, especially in southeastern New England.

Lee and Maria may join Jose in Atlantic this weekend

Two additional tropical storms or hurricanes are likely to join Jose over the next few days. One has already become a tropical depression. These systems are likely to gather the names Lee and Maria.

Both of these systems are brewing in the same general area that gave birth to Irma.

The system farthest west has the greatest chance at bringing adverse conditions to Irma-slammed areas in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos during the middle days of next week.

– By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

Advertisements