Accuweather: Hurricane Irma tracking toward US; Residents of East and Gulf coasts urged to prepare now

By Jordan Root and Renee Duff, Meteorologists for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 4, 2017 – As major Hurricane Irma churns across the northern Caribbean and towards the United States, residents along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. need to be on alert, AccuWeather reports

Irma will blast the northern Caribbean with flooding rain, damaging winds and rough surf this week, bringing life-threatening conditions to the islands.

A similar scenario could play out somewhere along the Gulf or East coasts this weekend or next week, depending on where Irma tracks. Residents are urged to prepare now.

“This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey,” Evan Myers, expert senior meteorologist and chief operating officer, said.

A landfall in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the Gulf of Mexico.

Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

The exact path of Irma beyond the end of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of moving parts in the atmosphere.

“A large area of high pressure across the central North Atlantic is helping to steer Irma,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

This feature will be the main driving force of Irma over the next few days. As the weekend approaches, other factors will come into play.

“The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma,” Kottlowski said.

How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will be an important factor on where Irma is steered this weekend into next week. The speed of this feature will determine when and how much Irma gets pulled northward or whether Irma continues on more of a westward track.

This amount of uncertainty means that the entire southern and eastern U.S. should monitor Irma this week. Residents along the coast are urged to start preparing and making sure plans are in place to deal with the worst case scenario. This includes plans on how to evacuate and what is important to bring with you and your family.

“As we saw just 10 days ago with Harvey, it is important to be ready to evacuate,” Myers said. Be prepared with a list of items you would need to take if you had 30 minutes’ notice or one hour’s notice or six hours or a day to evacuate.

Due to Irma following so closely on Harvey’s heels and since FEMA and other government resources will be strained, more preparation and storm aftermath may rest on individuals, Myers said. It may be crucial to evacuate ahead of the storm, so preparation is key.

If Irma were to make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm somewhere in the U.S., it would be in historical territory.

“The U.S. has not sustained a direct hit from two Category 4 or above hurricanes in more than 100 years,” Myers said.

Keep checking back to AccuWeather.com for updates on the status of Irma and where it may track in the days ahead.

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AccuWeather Warns of Life-Threatening Flooding, Mudslides for Northern California

(Accuweather.com)

AccuWeather is warning of heavy rain that will inundate coastal Oregon and northern California into early next week, threatening serious flash flooding, mudslides and travel delays and cancellations.

A Pineapple Express will help to fuel the heavy rain as the first of two major storms plows into the Pacific coast through Saturday, Meghan Mussoline, Meteorologist, reported.

The heaviest rain from the first storm will soak Northern California through Friday night.

“A Pineapple Express is a continuous surge of tropical moisture extending from near Hawaii all the way into a West Coast storm,” AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

This pattern can significantly enhance rainfall and threats such as flooding. Recent burn scar areas in California will be especially vulnerable to flooding and debris flows, since rain water cannot penetrate scorched ground.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are expected in western Oregon and northern California, including in the Bay Area. In far northern California, amounts will exceed 6 inches in some communities through Saturday.

Lengthy flight delays and cancellations are possible at San Francisco International Airport on Friday due to low clouds and excessive rainfall associated with the storm.

Motorists may face travel problems on the ground as rain mixes with oil buildup on roadways to create slick conditions.

During Saturday into Saturday night, the rain will taper to showers. However, runoff will continue to cause small streams to run high.

A second storm will arrive along the West Coast Sunday into Monday, unleashing another round of heavy rain and most likely another dose of flash flooding, mudslides and travel disruptions.

The rounds of rain follow after an extremely dry January for many locations.

“This is the first significant rain [for Northern California] since the middle of December,” Clark said.

January 2015 went down in the record books as the driest January on record for San Francisco with no rain recorded.

Meanwhile, mountain snowpack is an important resource for filling reservoirs and water supply for drought-stricken California. It is crucial to look at snowpack when analyzing the potential impact of storms on the ongoing drought. However, mountain snow is not likely with the upcoming storms, Clark said.

“Snow levels, because of the warm subtropical flow, will be very high, above 8,000 feet most of the time,” Clark said. “Therefore, while the rains are welcomed, though too much in some places is not good either, these storms will be no help in putting down a snowpack.”

Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for updates on the Pineapple Express