Accuweather Explains: What is Bombogenesis?

This image shows a storm over the Bering Sea in March 2015 that underwent bombogenesis. (NOAA/University of Wisconsin-Madison/Satellite)

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – January 3, 2017 – You may have heard or read about a storm undergoing “bombogenesis.” What exactly does that weather term mean?

In simple terms, bombogenesis is a storm that undergoes rapid strengthening. The vast majority of such storms occur over the ocean. The storm can be tropical or non-tropical in nature.

Other common phrases for bombogenesis include weather bomb, or simply bomb.

The term bombogenesis comes from the merging of two words: bomb and cyclogenesis. All storms are cyclones, and genesis means the creation or beginning. In this case, bomb refers to explosive development. Altogether the term means explosive storm strengthening.

A cyclone (non-tropical storm or hurricane) is essentially a giant rising column of air that spins counterclockwise over the Northern Hemisphere.

When air rises, it produces a vacuum effect that results in lower atmospheric pressure.

When a storm strengthens, the column of air rises at a faster and faster rate and the pressure within the storm lowers.

Meteorologists use a barometer to measure the atmospheric pressure. Atmospheric pressure is often called barometric pressure.

Average storms in the winter have a low barometric pressure reading of 29.53 inches of mercury.

Some of the most intense storms may have the barometric pressure below 29.00 inches.

However, it is not the lowest pressure that defines bombogenisis but rather how quickly the pressure within the storm plummets.

When the barometric pressure falls at least 0.71 of an inch (24 millibars) in 24 hours, a storm has undergone bombogenesis.

For example, a weak storm that began with a barometric pressure of 29.98 inches and ended up with a barometric pressure of 29.27 inches in 24 hours underwent bombogenesis.

The Superstorm of 1993 (Storm of the Century) from March 12-13 is a prime example of a storm that underwent bombogenesis. The storm strengthened from 29.41 inches (996 mb) to 28.45 inches (963 mb), or nearly 1.00 inch (33 mb), in 24 hours. Much of this strengthening occurred over land.

Other examples of storms that underwent bombogenesis are Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Wilma in 2005. The Blizzard of 2015 (Jan. 26-27), the Bering Sea storm of December 2015 and the northeastern United States storm of late-October 2017 experienced bombogenesis.

Storms that undergo bombogenesis are among the most violent weather systems that affect a broad area. This is because the rapidly ascending air near the center of the storm must be replaced by air surrounding the storm. As these winds move toward the center of the storm at high speed, property damage can occur, trees may fall and the power may go out.

The western North Atlantic is one favored area for storms to undergo bombogenesis. This is a region where cold air from North America collides with warm air over the Atlantic Ocean. Warm waters of the Gulf Stream may also provide a boost in a festering storm.

As a result, some, but not all nor’easters may undergo bombogenesis.

The intense winds often create massive seas and may cause significant beach erosion.

In terms of precipitation, very heavy rain and/or snow may fall in the path of the storm undergoing bombogenesis.

Precipitation rate is produced from the rising column of air. When air rises, it cools and moisture condenses to form clouds and rain or snow. The faster the air rises and cools, the heavier the precipitation.

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Accuweather: Snowstorm to Pound mid-Atlantic, Rage as Blizzard in New England

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – January 3, 2017 – AccuWeather reports a major storm will track close enough to the East Coast of the United States to bring everything from snow and ice to blizzard conditions and frigid winds on Thursday.

The storm is projected to undergo rapid strengthening, referred to as bombogenesis.

The storm will affect areas from Florida to Maine and Atlantic Canada.

Snow and a wintry mix are set to continue along the southeastern coast of the U.S. through Wednesday night.

Storm impact to be significant in mid-Atlantic, severe in New England

In the Northeast, impact from snow and wind will increase dramatically from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

AccuWeather meteorologists believe the heaviest snow and strongest winds from the storm will occur in eastern New England and part of Atlantic Canada.

Road conditions will range from slippery and snow-covered along the mid-Atlantic coast to completely blocked with snow and massive drifts in eastern New England, New Brunswick and part of eastern Quebec.

All flight operations may cease for a time at Boston Logan International Airport during the height of the storm.

Airline delays and cancellations will mount. Ripple-effect delays may occur across the nation. Some aircraft and crews are likely to be displaced by the severe storm in New England. Deicing activity, slippery runways, poor visibility and gusty winds will lead to flight delays in New York City and Philadelphia.

From eastern New England to Atlantic Canada, there is a risk of widespread power outages. Tremendous blowing and drifting snow is likely, and some communities may be isolated for several days in the wake of the storm in the bitter cold.

Increasing winds along the New England and upper mid-Atlantic coast will cause overwash, which will freeze, in addition to causing shoreline flooding.

New England to be hit with formidable blizzard

Blizzard conditions are likely from portions of Long Island, New York, through eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts to northeastern Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia.

A blizzard is a storm that produces snow or blowing snow with winds in excess of 35 mph and a visibility of less than one-quarter of a mile for at least three consecutive hours, according to the American Meteorological Society.

There is the potential for 12-24 inches (30-60 cm) or more of snow to fall in Maine and New Brunswick. At the same time, the risk of hurricane-force gusts and frigid air will pound these areas.

Heavy snow, blowing and drifting in store for mid-Atlantic coast

The storm is expected to track close enough to the coast to throw snow on the area from eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula to New Jersey, eastern New York and western New England. Blustery conditions will develop during the snowfall or shortly thereafter.

Whether a few flakes of snow or a debilitating snowstorm occurs in this western fringe will depend on the exact track of the storm and how quickly moisture is thrown westward as the storm strengthens.

In the coastal states from Virginia to New York, areas farthest east are likely to have the greatest amount of snow from the storm.

Little to no snow may fall in Albany, New York, Washington, D.C., and communities west of Philadelphia. However, the amount of snow will increase substantially a few miles farther east.

Coastal communities that usually receive wet snow or a rain/snow mix from storms can expect dry, powdery snow from this storm that will be subject to blowing and drifting.

Cold blast, gusty winds to follow the storm

Snow showers may occur from the mountains of central New York to the southern Appalachians and parts of the Midwest. However, these will be more of a product of a fresh injection of cold air, rather than from the storm at the coast.

Minor airline delays from snow showers may occur in the Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati airports.

Lake-effect snow is forecast to ramp up once again near the Great Lakes.

As the storm strengthens, winds will increase hundreds of miles away from the center of the circulation beginning Wednesday night.

Winds alone are likely to become strong enough to trigger airline delays in the major hubs of the Northeast, from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston from Thursday to Friday.

Strong offshore winds may lead to blowout tides along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

Blustery and cold conditions are in store as far south as Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

The strong winds and arctic air will add to the frigid weather pattern.

Seas will build to dangerous levels for small craft off the mid-Atlantic, New England and southeastern Canada coasts.

 

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Accuweather: Christmas Eve, Day Winter Storm to Snarl Traffic in Midwestern and Northeastern US

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – December 21, 2017 – As millions take to the roads or prepare to fly to their destinations for the Christmas holiday, winter storms will be on the prowl in the central and eastern United States through Christmas morning, AccuWeather forecasts.

A record 107.3 million people will take to planes, trains, aircraft and buses during the period from Saturday, Dec. 23, through Monday, Jan 1, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

While no intense storms are forecast, there will be areas of rain, ice and snow affecting heavily populated areas and popular travel routes.

The first storm will move on to target areas from the upper Gulf coast to the lower Great Lakes, central and southern Appalachians and the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast with rain from Friday to Saturday.

Snow, ice and treacherous travel from the first storm will spread from the central Great Lakes to part of the central Appalachians and New England into Saturday.

Another storm to blanket Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest with snow into Christmas Eve

The second storm of concern will bring accumulating snow to the central Rockies, including the Denver area on Saturday, before turning eastward Saturday night and Sunday.

It is this second storm that has the greatest potential to leave some snow on the ground for a white Christmas in parts of the central Plains, Ohio Valley states and central Appalachians.

Airline delays will be possible due to deicing operations while portions of I-25, I-35, I-69, I-70, I-74, I-75, I-77, I-80 and I-90 will be slippery.

Accumulating snow is forecast in Omaha, Nebraska; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; St. Louis; Chicago; Indianapolis; Detroit; Cleveland and Toronto as it rolls out Saturday night and Christmas Eve. Snow may cover the ground in Evansville, Indiana; Louisville, Kentucky; and Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus, Ohio.

Snow showers may linger over the central and northern Rockies in the wake of the storm.

The same storm is also projected to spread snow into parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and western New York at night on Christmas Eve.

It is after dark on Christmas Eve, when the storm from the Midwest will attempt to join up with a budding storm along the Atlantic coast.

Third storm to bring snow to part of mid-Atlantic, New England Sunday night to Christmas Day

The track and strength of the storm, as well as the speed at which much colder air arrives, will determine the form of precipitation from parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to southeastern New England from Sunday night to early Christmas Day.

At this time, all or mostly rain is forecast from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and Atlantic City, New Jersey.

However, snow and sleet are likely to mix in toward the end of the storm from near Allentown and Scranton, Pennsylvania, to Trenton, New Jersey; New York City; Hartford, Connecticut; Providence, Rhode Island; and Boston late Sunday night to Christmas morning.

If the two storms merge together and strengthen at a fast pace, then accumulating snow may fall as far to the southwest as Washington, D.C.

The storms are likely to come together fast enough to bring a heavy snowfall for much of central and northwestern New England and northeastern New York state on Christmas Day. It is in these areas where travel to church services, friends and family may be difficult.

Elsewhere, dry weather and a wildfire risk will continue in California, while a couple of storms may bring rounds of mixed precipitation to the coastal Northwest into Christmas Day.

Much colder air entering the middle of the nation during the weekend prior to Christmas will be just the start of a frigid weather pattern for many. Aside from storms, a broadening blast of cold air will be a major factor in the weather during the week of Christmas.

The frigid air will unleash bands of lake-effect snow and may pave the way for snow and ice as additional storms are likely to come about.

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

Accuweather Thanksgiving Travel Forecast: Rain to Hug US East Coast; Lake-effect Snow to Slick Roads Near Great Lakes

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – November 21, 2017 – AccuWeather reports rain may slow travel for a time in part of the east coast of the United States, while significant travel delays are likely in the Northwest and near the Great Lakes leading up to Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day represent some of the busiest travel days of the year for all means of transportation, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

While the weather will cooperate for a large portion of the nation, there will be some areas of concern for holiday travel.

Rain to hug Atlantic coast

In lieu of a major storm, a weak storm is likely to brush part of the Atlantic Seaboard prior to Thanksgiving Day.

Wet weather is in store over much of Florida into Tuesday night. Rain is forecast to brush the coastal areas of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday night and then coastal New England on Wednesday.

The greatest impact will be to motorists.

Wet road surfaces and blowing spray may require lower speeds.

“The combination of rain and a low cloud ceiling may also be enough to lead to airline delays in Boston and perhaps New York City for a time on Wednesday,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

How far west the rain extends will depend on how close to the coast the storm tracks. At this time any long-duration rain is not likely to occur west of Interstate 95 in the mid-Atlantic region. Areas right along the mid-Atlantic coast may get a few hours of light rain.

Drenching rain is mostly likely to occur in southeastern New England and eastern Long Island

A brief period of rain and snow may occur on the back side of the storm over the central and northern Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes from Tuesday night to early Wednesday.

“Regardless of the amount of rain and/or snow showers, gusty winds are likely to herald the return of the cold air on Wednesday,” Abrams said. “Winds may pose a problem as the massive balloons are inflated ahead of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City.”

Another storm is forecast to bring more rain to parts of Florida on Thanksgiving Day, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Fait Eherts.

Snowy, windy episodes to pester Upper Midwest

A new burst of cold air and a weak storm are forecast to produce spotty snow for the northern tier of the Midwest into Thanksgiving Day.

The fresh batch of cold air will be accompanied by gusty winds over much of the North Central states. Winds may be strong enough to lead to airline delays even in the absence of any snow showers into Wednesday.

As a pocket of arctic air races southeastward, it will briefly renew lake-effect snow from northern Michigan to northern and western New York, western Pennsylvania and northeastern West Virginia into midweek.

Motorists should be prepared for sudden snow showers and rapidly changing road conditions on their travels in these areas.

From late Wednesday to early Thanksgiving Day, a brief period of snow and/or freezing drizzle will develop over the northern Plains and slice southeastward across the Great Lakes.

While only a small amount of wintry precipitation is anticipated, even a thin coating of snow or ice can cause great difficulty for motorists on crowded highways.

Throughout the Midwest, there will be a couple of episodes of gusty winds that may lead to minor airline delays and tricky crosswinds on the highways.

Storms to harass travelers in northwestern US

By far, poor travel conditions will be the most consistent in coastal areas of Washington and Oregon through Thanksgiving Day.

Motorists venturing along the Interstate 5 corridor in the Northwest can expect rounds of drenching rain and periods of fog, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Kyle Elliot.

Lesser rain is forecast east of the Cascades.

Snow levels are forecast to rise slowly into Thanksgiving Day.

Motorists may encounter slushy and slippery conditions into Tuesday over Snoqualmie Pass along I-90 in Washington. Milder conditions will allow plain rain to fall from Tuesday night to Thursday. However, fog may accompany the milder air over the mountains, where snow remains on the ground.

The milder air will allow rain to fall or a mixture of rain and snow to occur at most intermediate elevations of the northern Rockies, including many of the major passes.

Major weather-related travel disruptions unlikely over rest of US

It is possible that flights originating from the Northwest, coastal Northeast and Upper Midwest may cause minor delays elsewhere across the nation into Thanksgiving Day.

However, a large portion of the Southwest, South-Central and interior Southeast can expect good travel conditions.

Showers are forecast to retreat to the Gulf of Mexico along the Texas and Louisiana coasts beyond Tuesday night.

 

Accuweather: Blinding Lake-effect Snow, Bitterly Cold Winds to cause Thanksgiving Travel Delays

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – Nov. 15, 2017 – AccuWeather reports  that following the mild, wet weather ending this week, progressively colder air will unleash rounds of lake-effect snow from the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast for travel during the week of Thanksgiving.

Travel delays related to wind and/or snow are likely in parts of the midwestern and eastern United States.

“We expect two major pushes of cold air into the eastern half of the U.S. during the week of Thanksgiving,” according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Evan Duffey.

The weather pattern is giving mixed signals as to whether or not a storm will bring rain and snow to the East during the transition to the cold weather.

However, there will be a consequence as reinforcing waves of cold air pass over the Great Lakes.

As cold air passes over the relatively warm waters, streets of towering clouds form and deposit heavy snow along the downwind shoreline and dozens of miles inland.

Where the bands of heavy snow persist, up to a foot of snow can fall. As many as two rounds of lake-effect snow are anticipated from Sunday through the Thanksgiving weekend.

The details of which communities will be hit the hardest on particular days has yet to be determined. A small variance in the wind direction can vary the bands of heavy snow by a dozen miles or more.

For example, a west-southwest wind off Lake Ontario would blast Watertown, New York, with intense snow, but a due west wind would potentially bury communities such as Barnes Corners and Sandy Creek, New York, several miles to the south.

“Motorists with plans on utilizing Interstate 90 from northern Indiana to western New York, I-81 in northern New York state and other highways immediately downwind of all of the Great Lakes should be prepared for travel delays and rapid changes in roadway visibility next week,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.

One round of lake-effect snow associated with the first cold blast will erupt later this weekend into early next week.

Another round of lake-effect snow may begin during the middle of next week. There is still uncertainty as to the extent or intensity of that round of lake-effect snow.

Travel conditions will range from blinding snow and the potential for temporary road closures to sunny over a span of a few miles.

At times, the bands of lake-effect snow may extend 200 miles or more to the central Appalachians. Motorists traveling through the higher terrain in West Virginia, western Maryland and western and northern Pennsylvania should expect locally blinding snow squalls and a quick accumulation on roads. This includes stretches of I-79 and I-80.

At times, wind gusts may be strong enough to lead to difficulty for high-profile vehicles. Strong crosswinds at airports from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic coast can lead to airline delays in lieu of any snow or a major storm.

Gusty winds to add to the pain of the cold air

“Blasts of cold air like this are not uncommon during the middle and latter part of November,” Duffey said. “However, following the warmth during most weeks of this autumn season, heating demand will be high.”

Temperatures are projected to average 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal during multiple days during the week of Thanksgiving from the Midwest to the Northeast, as well as much of the Southeast.

The anticipated weather pattern will translate to highs in the 20s over the northern tier to the 40s over the interior South on the coldest days. AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures can dip to 20 degrees lower than the actual temperature at times.

Battling the wind on the highway may reduce fuel efficiency.

Regardless of wind, motorists can expect to pay much more at the pump for their Thanksgiving road trip. Strong consumer demand and lowering national inventory have pushed gasoline prices to nearly 40 cents a gallon higher than last year at this time, according to the American Automobile Association.

One positive of the cold weather pattern will be plenty of opportunities for ski resorts to make snow in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

What about the storm potential?

In terms of large-scale storms that may increase commute time, one storm projected to affect much of the eastern U.S. this weekend will likely be warm enough for rain in most areas and even gusty thunderstorms in part of the Midwest.

However, it is the same storm that will set into motion the first blast of cold air for next week.

“A second storm during the middle of next week has the potential to bring a period of rain along the Atlantic coast and snow over the Appalachians spanning Wednesday to Thanksgiving Day,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams. “Another scenario is the second storm may be so overwhelmed by cold, dry air that it is forced out to sea.”

Regardless of the nature of the storms, gone are the warm and tranquil conditions that graced much of the Midwest and East during October.

Motorists and airline passengers should anticipate delays and be ready to adjust their travel plans during the week of Thanksgiving.

 

AccuWeather Launches New Mosquito Zika Risk Index for US

AccuWeather, a major source of weather forecasts and warnings, announced a Mosquito Zika Risk Index on AccuWeather.com and AccuWeather iOS apps. Availability on the AccuWeather app for Android will follow soon.

The first-of-its-kind index gives users a quick and easy way to view the likelihood of mosquito infestations that could lead to greater risk of contracting the Zika virus at a particular location in the contiguous U.S. The Index will help people understand where the greatest concentrations of mosquitos exist (which may carry other pathogens as well) and where and how this is related to possible Zika carrying concentrations.  The Index is not a medical warning or diagnosis and decisions about one’s health and related risks and is not intended to be, those decisions should always be made in concert with medical professionals.  The Index can alert people to relatively unsafe areas; keeping in mind that a Zika carrying mosquito could exist in safer areas as well.

The Mosquito Zika Risk Index level (very low, low, medium, or high) is generated by evaluating the historical habitat for the mosquito species most linked with Zika and the latest scientific research on how weather affects Zika transmission by mosquitos, then combining it with the AccuWeather Day-By-Day 90-Day Forecasts. This innovative index benefits users by providing real-time insights they can use to make informed decisions to keep themselves, and their families, safe.

“Weather is an enormous factor when it comes to our health,” said Steve Smith, President of Digital Media, AccuWeather. “We are glad to lead the way in offering an array of innovative product enhancements that help people derive important and useful information from our weather forecasts.  This new Mosquito Zika Risk index will help people make better decisions to protect their health by giving them the insight they need to avoid risky scenarios, or take necessary precautions when visits to high-risk areas are unavoidable.”

People can access the Mosquito Zika Risk Index from the Personalized Forecasts Menu on the AccuWeather.com homepage. Select the Mosquito forecast and click the button labeled “Check Your Zika Risk” to open the Mosquito Zika Risk Index page.

Risk level information for the user’s location will be presented at the top of the page. If Zika cases suspected to have been transmitted by mosquitos have been reported at this location, the number of cases will be displayed. Users can view details for additional U.S. locations by clicking on the map displayed on the page.

An interactive timeline lets visitors see predicted risk levels over a 90-day period, with color coding to indicate the risk contours on the map. This is particularly helpful at this time of the year, when rapid changes to Zika mosquito risk occur as temperature patterns change during the Fall.  Tapping the dates on the timeline triggers the map to show the index for different timeframes.

Users of the AccuWeather app for iOS can access the Mosquito Zika Risk Index from the menu located in the bottom right corner of the screen. Expanding this menu and selecting “View Map” opens a map page with a gray search box at the top of the screen. Tapping on the search box permits users to choose “Zika Risk from Mosquitos” from a selection of maps. Users can then scroll around the map, zoom in and out by pinching the screen, and tap on an area to see the current Zika risk in that location. Color-coded risk levels, from low to high, displayed on the map make the information quickly and easily accessible and understandable.

The Mosquito Zika Risk Index is AccuWeather’s latest product enhancement designed to save and improve people’s lives by providing contextually relevant information, in this case to reduce the risk of an infectious disease. In addition to ensuring safety with the most accurate weather forecasts and warnings, AccuWeather.com and the company’s iOS and Android apps already include a Pollen Index to help people protect themselves against pollen as an allergen. Having the most accurate forecasts and warnings also gives migraine or joint pain sufferers the information they need to avoid humidity, and people with asthma the information they need to avoid dry conditions.

“This new Mosquito Zika Risk Index takes our efforts to use weather forecasts for improved health one step further,” said Smith. Smith also noted that the index is especially timely during this extraordinary hurricane season, when residents of Texas and Florida are experiencing a greater pooling of standing water due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which may ultimately lead to greater infestations of mosquitoes.

Dr. Joacim Rocklov, Associate Professor in Epidemiology and Global Health at Umea University, Sweden, urges caution about the threat of Zika virus following a major flood event.  “The risk of Zika typically decreases in the first month following a flood event, then increases in the two- to three-month time frame before falling back to normal levels,” he said.

Nearly 2 billion people worldwide rely on AccuWeather to help them plan their lives, protect their businesses, and get more from their day. AccuWeather provides hour-by-hour and minute-by-minute forecasts with Superior Accuracy™ with customized content and engaging video presentations available through smart phones, tablets, free wired and mobile Internet sites via AccuWeather.com, award-winning AccuWeather apps, connected TVs, wearables, smart homes, and connected cars, as well as radio, television, newspapers, and the AccuWeather Network cable channel.

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Accuweather: Jose to track close enough to bring rough surf, wind, rain to northeastern US

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 15, 2017 – AccuWeather reports  Jose will track close enough to the northeastern United States to raise seas and winds as well as to deliver rain to coastal areas next week.

People in coastal areas of the Northeast will need to monitor the progress of Jose, which will begin to track northward but remain offshore of the Southeastern states this weekend.

“It appears that Jose will miss the quick ride away from the U.S. coast and into the cold waters of the North Atlantic next week,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

Instead, Jose is now expected to pass within 200 miles of the Northeast coast.

“We cannot rule out landfall in New England during the middle of next week,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

The exact track and strength of Jose will determine the severity of the wind and surf as well as the northwestern extent of the rain.

Jose to bring significant impact, even if storm stays offshore

A hurricane does not need to make landfall to cause significant adverse effects in the northeastern U.S., since the shape of the coast tends to enhance storm effects and trap ocean water.

Rough surf and strong rip currents will be a problem along the southern Atlantic coast through the weekend.

At this point, impact in the northeastern U.S. is based on a strong tropical storm, minimal hurricane or hybrid storm that comes close to the Northeast coast but remains slightly offshore. Such a storm and track will tend to keep the most significant effects to communities along and east of Interstate 95.

At the very least, Jose will cause dangerous surf and seas, which will lead to beach erosion and minor flooding at times of high tide from eastern North Carolina to Maine.

The number and frequency of rip currents will increase along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts this weekend. Breakers powerful enough to cause serious injury may reach much of the Northeast coast by early next week.

With the new moon phase early next week, tide levels are higher than most of the rest of the month. A strong storm tracking near the coast may push tides to 1-3 feet above published levels.

Winds may get strong enough to damage trees and cause sporadic power outages. Gusts to 50 mph are possible from eastern Maryland to Maine and are likely on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Some rain will reach the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The combination of rain and wind near the coast will lead to airline delays and slow travel on area highways.

Much worse effects are likely if landfall occurs

Should Jose be stronger than a Category 1 hurricane and/or make landfall, more significant effects are likely.

A Category 1 hurricane or the equivalent thereof can cause property damage, widespread power outages, flooding rainfall and moderate coastal flooding.

Just offshore, seas could range upwards of 20 feet, should a Category 1 hurricane or greater approach the coast.

A landfall in southeastern New England could cause heavy rain and gusty wind to spread well inland across the Northeast.

What will influence Jose’s strength?

“Jose is likely to gain back some strength into this weekend as the storm encounters less disruptive winds aloft,” Pydynowski said.

Waters are sufficiently warm to maintain a hurricane through early next week.

“The storm will move over even warmer waters of the Gulf Stream by early next week, which may lead to additional strengthening,” Pydynowski said.

Jose may reach Category 2 or 3 status at some point between Sunday and Tuesday.

“As Jose moves off the coast of the upper mid-Atlantic and New England, water temperatures drop significantly, which may lead to weakening or transformation to a sub-tropical system,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

Even if Jose weakens or loses some tropical characteristics, the storm may spread out in size and the same adverse effects of wind, seas and rain can occur.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty of Jose’s track and strength. However, people may want to take some precautions, should the storm wander onshore. Preparation for the equivalent of a moderate to strong nor’easter may be warranted, especially in southeastern New England.

Lee and Maria may join Jose in Atlantic this weekend

Two additional tropical storms or hurricanes are likely to join Jose over the next few days. One has already become a tropical depression. These systems are likely to gather the names Lee and Maria.

Both of these systems are brewing in the same general area that gave birth to Irma.

The system farthest west has the greatest chance at bringing adverse conditions to Irma-slammed areas in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos during the middle days of next week.

– By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

Website Lists Hotel Room Availability During Hurricane Irma in The Palm Beaches

The grand, historic Breakers Hotel on Palm Beach island must now brace for Hurricane Irma. Discover The Palm Beaches has deployed a storm update page as a resource regarding hotel room availability © Karen Rubin/goingplacesfarandnear.com

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (September 8, 2017) – Discover The Palm Beaches, the official tourism marketing corporation for Palm Beach County, has deployed a storm update page as a resource regarding hotel room availability during the potential impact of Hurricane Irma. The page can be found at: www.thepalmbeaches.com/severe-weather/accommodations.

The page is also accessible on www.ThePalmBeaches.com and will feature a list of hotel and lodging options throughout Palm Beach County with available occupancy. In addition, the page is linked to a list of key agencies that provide important resources for hurricane preparedness in Palm Beach County and throughout Florida.

“Our top priority is the safety of our visitors, conference attendees, residents, and tourism partners. This webpage will help ensure that these groups can remain informed in real time regarding the availability of resources to assist them during the potentially severe weather,” said Jorge Pesquera, president and CEO for Discover The Palm Beaches. “We encourage everyone in the area to monitor our website as we continue to keep our eye on the storm and its potential impact on our area.”

Current weather forecasts have issued hurricane advisories that include Palm Beach County. Visitors are encouraged to exercise caution and check with airlines, hotels, meeting venues, car rental companies, tour operators, etc. to determine what actions they plan to take and what methods are in place to assist potentially displaced travelers.

Travelers, conference delegates and residents should also look to the following sources for information:

• National Weather Service: www.weather.gov/
• National Hurricane Center: www.nhc.noaa.gov
• VISIT FLORIDA travel advisories on www.VISITFLORIDA.com
• VISIT FLORIDA Partners and businesses in the Florida tourism industry hotline, (877) 435-2872
• Florida Division of Emergency Management: floridadisaster.org
• General tourism information: VISIT FLORIDA consumer hotline, 888-735-2872
• Florida Power & Light (FPL) Storm Center: www.fpl.com/storm
• Palm Beach County public affairs: http://discover.pbcgov.org/

 

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Travel Insurance Company Warns of Widespread Disruptions as Florida, Caribbean Prepare for Hurricane Irma

MIAMI, FL (Sept. 5, 2017) – As Houston continues to recover from the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey, another potentially life-threatening storm is churning east of the Caribbean with a trajectory that will likely reach Florida by the end of the week, according to APRIL Travel Protection. Hurricane Irma (NASA satellite view of developing storm pictured) has recently been upgraded to Category 5.

“While it’s still too early to tell what kind of impact Hurricane Irma will have on the U.S. mainland, the storm is on a direct path for the Caribbean with islands in the northeast region from Puerto Rico to Antigua and Barbuda in its crosshairs,” said Jason Schreier, CEO for the Miami-based U.S. division of 29-year-old APRIL Group.

Policyholders who purchased travel insurance from APRIL for an affected destination before the storm was named on Aug. 30 are eligible for trip cancellation. Additionally, policyholders currently on vacation in affected areas may be eligible for trip interruption and evacuation benefits under APRIL’s flagship “Stress Less” Benefits which utilize instant adjudication to bypass the claims process for applicable inconveniences.

A ground-breaking feature first introduced to the U.S. market by APRIL, ‘Stress Less’ Benefits allow policyholders to enjoy their vacation without having to worry about out-of-pocket expenses in an emergency caused by severe weather, natural disasters or a wide range of potential issues including injury, sickness, death, job loss or relocation, military duty, terrorism, strikes, supplier default and more. “This means you don’t have to pay out of pocket, endure a ton of paperwork and then wait months to find out how much your policy will actually cover,” explained Schreier.

“Though Hurricane Harvey was only a tropical storm when it traversed the Caribbean, the proximity of these storms lends credence to some of the dire predictions made by forecasters for the 2017 hurricane season, which may stretch into November this year,” noted Schreier.

Earlier this year, Global Weather Oscillations, which is known for its reliability with an impressive 87% accuracy, predicted that the “2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be the most dangerous in 12 years.”

APRIL Travel Protection is owned by APRIL, an international group with 45 operational companies in more than 40 different countries.  APRIL is listed on Euronext Stock Exchange and has yearly sales of more than $1.1 billion.

With Insurance Made Easy as it guiding principle, the APRIL Global Assistance Network benefits from an extensive organizational structure servicing more than six million policyholders worldwide.

The company’s U.S. division is supported by American Modern Insurance Group (an AM Best A+ rated carrier) as its preferred underwriter and is headquartered at 11900 Biscayne Blvd. Suite 600, Miami, FL, 33181. Visit www.AprilTravelProtection.com to learn more.

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Accuweather: Hurricane Irma tracking toward US; Residents of East and Gulf coasts urged to prepare now

By Jordan Root and Renee Duff, Meteorologists for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 4, 2017 – As major Hurricane Irma churns across the northern Caribbean and towards the United States, residents along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. need to be on alert, AccuWeather reports

Irma will blast the northern Caribbean with flooding rain, damaging winds and rough surf this week, bringing life-threatening conditions to the islands.

A similar scenario could play out somewhere along the Gulf or East coasts this weekend or next week, depending on where Irma tracks. Residents are urged to prepare now.

“This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey,” Evan Myers, expert senior meteorologist and chief operating officer, said.

A landfall in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the Gulf of Mexico.

Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

The exact path of Irma beyond the end of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of moving parts in the atmosphere.

“A large area of high pressure across the central North Atlantic is helping to steer Irma,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

This feature will be the main driving force of Irma over the next few days. As the weekend approaches, other factors will come into play.

“The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma,” Kottlowski said.

How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will be an important factor on where Irma is steered this weekend into next week. The speed of this feature will determine when and how much Irma gets pulled northward or whether Irma continues on more of a westward track.

This amount of uncertainty means that the entire southern and eastern U.S. should monitor Irma this week. Residents along the coast are urged to start preparing and making sure plans are in place to deal with the worst case scenario. This includes plans on how to evacuate and what is important to bring with you and your family.

“As we saw just 10 days ago with Harvey, it is important to be ready to evacuate,” Myers said. Be prepared with a list of items you would need to take if you had 30 minutes’ notice or one hour’s notice or six hours or a day to evacuate.

Due to Irma following so closely on Harvey’s heels and since FEMA and other government resources will be strained, more preparation and storm aftermath may rest on individuals, Myers said. It may be crucial to evacuate ahead of the storm, so preparation is key.

If Irma were to make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm somewhere in the U.S., it would be in historical territory.

“The U.S. has not sustained a direct hit from two Category 4 or above hurricanes in more than 100 years,” Myers said.

Keep checking back to AccuWeather.com for updates on the status of Irma and where it may track in the days ahead.

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